Past performance is not indicative of future results

This is clearly and demonstrably true of mutual funds. It’s easy to confirm.

And yet…

We are very uncomfortable with randomness. So the newspaper does a 12 page section of mutual funds, filled with articles and ads and charts, all touting past performance.

Superstition is what we call the belief in causation due to a mistaken correlation of unrelated data. A broken mirror doesn’t actually cause seven years of bad luck, and cheering in a certain way isn’t going to help the Yankees, sorry.

Of course, we don’t live in a completely random world. The scientific method and statistics make it more likely than ever that you can find trends that actually matter.

The hard part is accepting that the random things actually are unpredictable, and refusing to spend time or money guessing on what can’t be reliably guessed. It frees up a lot of time and resources to focus on the things that are actually worth measuring.

Reblogged from: here

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About janaknmistry

Janak is a 1984 born, MSc and MBA educated from Mumbai, India. He is an avid traveller by choice and a solopreneur by luck. He has clocked many thousands of kilometres on a motorcycle. It was his journey to the Leh-Ladakh, which motivated him to write about his experiences throughout the journey in enjoying the beauty, pain and hardships. He has successful authored and published his book called “Journey in Time with Timeless Memories” which is released and published in Germany and available all over the world besides Asia and the Middle East. Apart from being an author he is an active book reviewer too and have reviewed books by some of the established authors in USA. Janak runs a motorcycle expedition co. called Jack n Jill-The Moto Expedition Co. He is passionate about travelling and photography, which helps him find a beauty and meaning in this wide busy world. It was his journey to the Leh-Ladakh which motivated him to write about his experiences throughout the journey in enjoying the beauty, pain and hardships. He is passionate about travelling and photography which helps him find a beauty and meaning in this wide busy world.
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